Bitcoin’s rebound lifted the estimated value of SpaceX’s Bitcoin holdings by $191.72 million in 20 days, from $1.41 billion on Sept. 16 to $1.61 billion on Oct. 6, 2026. The increase was a mark-to-market gain: the estimate reflects the higher Bitcoin price, not a sale or realized profit.
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Why the estimate rose
Bitcoin’s reported price moved from $75,585 on Sept. 16 to nearly $86,000 on Oct. 6. The report said SpaceX did not buy or distribute Bitcoin during that period, so the higher estimated value was attributed to the price rebound rather than a larger position.
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These figures are estimates, not a new balance-sheet valuation for Oct. 6. SpaceX’s latest Form 10-Q covered its position only through June 30, according to the reporting.
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SpaceX’s Bitcoin count depends on the source
SpaceX’s IPO filing disclosed 18,712 BTC. That is more than twice the 8,285 BTC that Arkham had previously been reported to identify in SpaceX-linked wallets.
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There is also a small discrepancy in the October reporting: Finbold, citing data it fetched from Arkham Intelligence, described the current holdings as 18,720 BTC—eight more than the filing figure. The available sources do not explain the difference.
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The filing reported a cost basis of about $661 million for the 18,712 BTC position. Comparing that cost with an estimated October value of about $1.61 billion implies roughly $949 million in unrealized gains. This is an approximate calculation, not a reported profit figure for that date.
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How the value compares with other reference points
The October estimate is above the filing’s reported fair value of $1.29 billion as of March 31, 2026, but below its reported $1.64 billion value as of Dec. 31, 2025. Those are dated accounting values, so they are useful reference points—not like-for-like daily market quotes.
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At Bitcoin’s reported 2025 peak of $126,080, 18,712 BTC would have been worth about $2.36 billion. That calculation is illustrative: it applies the peak price to the filing’s coin count and does not establish what SpaceX’s position was worth on that exact date.
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Citi’s reported $132,000 year-end 2026 forecast would imply a value of about $2.47 billion for 18,712 BTC, roughly $860 million above the Oct. 6 estimate. This is a scenario based on Citi’s price forecast, not a forecast of SpaceX’s profit. Citi’s separate $181,000 figure was reported as a 12-month price target, not its year-end forecast.
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The takeaway
The rebound increased the estimated dollar value of SpaceX’s Bitcoin without requiring a change in the assumed holdings. But the October value remains an estimate, the reported counts are not fully consistent, and unrealized gains can shrink or grow as Bitcoin’s price moves.