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How Arkham Traced 78% of Strategy’s Bitcoin—and What the Transfer Really Shows
Arkham estimated it could track about 78% of Strategy’s bitcoin by combining $40.28 billion in Strategy labeled wallets with $15.5 billion tagged within Fidelity Custody. A 3,568 BTC transfer from Strategy linked wallets prompted sale speculation, but an Arkham analyst said it was an internal Fidelity custody moveme...
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Key takeaways
- Arkham estimated it could track about 78% of Strategy’s bitcoin by combining $40.28 billion in Strategy labeled wallets with $15.5 billion tagged within Fidelity Custody.
- A 3,568 BTC transfer from Strategy linked wallets prompted sale speculation, but an Arkham analyst said it was an internal Fidelity custody movement; Strategy did not publicly confirm the purpose.
- Strategy reported 847,666 BTC at September 27 and said it bought 1,665 BTC that week, partly using proceeds from a common stock sale.
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openai.comCreate a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: How did Arkham Intelligence trace an estimated 78% of Strategy’s bitcoin holdings despite Michael Saylor’s refusal to disclose its wallet ad. Article summary: Arkham did not need Michael Saylor to publish Strategy’s addresses: it attributed addresses and traced transactions on Bitcoin’s public ledger. But its estimate that it can track about 78% of Strategy’s bitcoin is not th. Topic tags: general, general web, user generated, government. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, ch
Arkham Intelligence says it can track roughly 78% of Strategy’s bitcoin without the company publishing its wallet addresses. Its estimate combines bitcoin in wallets labeled as Strategy with funds tagged inside Fidelity Custody—a distinction that became especially important when 3,568 BTC moved between custody-linked addresses. 16
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The figures offer a view into Strategy’s large bitcoin treasury, but they are not a complete map of its holdings. Public transaction data can show where bitcoin moves; it cannot, by itself, establish who owns each coin held in a custodian’s pooled system or why a transfer took place.
How Arkham arrived at its 78% estimate
In an October 1 update, Arkham said Strategy-labeled wallets held $40.28 billion in bitcoin and another $15.5 billion was tagged within Fidelity Custody. Together, that was $55.78 billion, or about 78% of the approximately $71.4 billion Arkham valued Strategy’s bitcoin holdings at in the update. 16
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Reporting on Arkham’s wallet data also described roughly 1,600 Strategy-linked addresses holding 478,199 BTC. 3 Those wallet labels are Arkham’s attributions: the estimate does not mean Strategy publicly confirmed every address or that the Fidelity-tagged coins sit in wallets used only by Strategy.
Bitcoin transactions are recorded on a public blockchain, so analysts can follow transfers between addresses. Arkham’s estimate depends on identifying addresses it associates with Strategy and tagging activity within Fidelity’s custody system. But the public ledger does not reveal the custodian’s internal allocation of pooled assets. Arkham’s own figures therefore distinguish Strategy-labeled wallets from assets tagged within Fidelity Custody. 16
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Why the 3,568 BTC movement was not proof of a sale
On-chain trackers flagged about 3,568 BTC—then worth roughly $297 million—moving out of wallets associated with Strategy over several hours. The transfers raised questions about whether Strategy had sold bitcoin. 7
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An Arkham analyst said the movement was a normal rearrangement within Fidelity Custody, rather than a sale or a transfer out of the custody system. Strategy had not publicly confirmed the purpose of those specific transactions, according to reporting at the time. 7
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The episode illustrates a basic limit of wallet tracking: an outbound transfer shows that bitcoin moved from one address to another, but that fact alone does not establish a sale. Identifying the receiving addresses as part of a custodian’s system can provide context, while still leaving the transaction’s exact business purpose unconfirmed.
What Strategy reported about its bitcoin and funding
Strategy’s reported figures provide a separate, company-level view. As of September 27, it held 847,666 BTC, acquired for about $63.95 billion. For the week of September 21–27, the company reported buying 1,665 BTC for $142.7 million. 23
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Over the same period, Strategy sold 1,469,165 common shares through its at-the-market offering program, generating $246.2 million in net proceeds. It allocated $142.7 million of those proceeds to bitcoin purchases and $103.5 million to STRC preferred-stock repurchases. The company reported total STRC repurchases of about $151.7 million for the period, with the balance funded from cash. 23
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Taken together, those disclosures show the company allocating proceeds from common-stock sales between bitcoin accumulation and preferred-stock buybacks. They complement the blockchain view, but answer different questions: company reporting gives aggregate holdings and stated funding decisions, while on-chain analysis traces transactions between addresses.
What on-chain tracking can—and cannot—tell you
Arkham’s estimate makes a substantial portion of Strategy’s bitcoin activity more visible, even without a public list of company wallet addresses. But the 78% figure should be read as an analytics estimate, not as a complete or independently verified accounting of ownership. In particular, the $15.5 billion tagged within Fidelity Custody is not the same as $15.5 billion held in addresses shown to belong exclusively to Strategy. 16
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Likewise, a transfer from a Strategy-labeled address is not, on its own, evidence of a sale. Public transactions can reveal movement and support address attribution; pooled custody and the absence of a confirmed purpose can leave important details unresolved. Strategy’s reported holdings and filings remain necessary context for interpreting what the blockchain shows. 7
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What is the short answer to "How Arkham Traced 78% of Strategy’s Bitcoin—and What the Transfer Really Shows"?
Arkham estimated it could track about 78% of Strategy’s bitcoin by combining $40.28 billion in Strategy labeled wallets with $15.5 billion tagged within Fidelity Custody.
What are the key points to validate first?
Arkham estimated it could track about 78% of Strategy’s bitcoin by combining $40.28 billion in Strategy labeled wallets with $15.5 billion tagged within Fidelity Custody. A 3,568 BTC transfer from Strategy linked wallets prompted sale speculation, but an Arkham analyst said it was an internal Fidelity custody movement; Strategy did not publicly confirm the purpose.
What should I do next in practice?
Strategy reported 847,666 BTC at September 27 and said it bought 1,665 BTC that week, partly using proceeds from a common stock sale.