Can Apple Stock Keep Rising? The September 9 Launch Is the Key Test

Apple’s shares can continue to outperform, but the setup is conditional rather than straightforward. At the reported $324.96 share price, investors are effectively asking the September 9 product launch to demonstrate that Apple can sustain a more valuable iPhone mix without sacrificing demand or margins. 14

Apple has confirmed its September 9 “Surprise and shine” event in Cupertino, the first major product launch under CEO John Ternus. Analysts and media reports expect new iPhones and Apple’s first folding phone, but the company’s invitation did not identify the products, specifications, or prices. 2131

Why the launch matters for Apple stock

A successful foldable would matter less as a one-day product announcement than as evidence that Apple can create incremental premium demand. The bullish argument is that a new form factor can lift the mix of high-priced devices, encourage upgrades, and add revenue rather than simply move buyers from existing Pro models.

One bullish analyst scenario cited by market data projects roughly $14 billion in foldable revenue in Apple’s December quarter. That is an analyst estimate, not Apple guidance, so it should be treated as a measure of expectations—not an established forecast. 20

For the stock, the key questions are practical:

• Will the device command a premium price without weakening demand?
• Can Apple deliver enough units promptly? Long lead times may signal demand, but they can also reflect limited supply.
• Will the product add to the premium mix? A foldable that merely replaces a Pro sale has a different financial impact from one that brings in new high-end spending.
• Can gross margin remain resilient? Higher component costs make pricing and product mix especially important.

What Jefferies’ downgrade is really arguing

Jefferies downgraded Apple to Underperform from Hold and cut its price target to $263.66 from $285.56. The firm said supply-chain checks indicated that a planned 2027 all-glass iPhone had been canceled because of low production yields. Apple has not confirmed that report. 14

The bear thesis is not simply that one rumored device may not arrive. Jefferies’ broader concern is that losing a very high-priced future model could make it harder for Apple to keep raising iPhone average selling prices while component costs increase. The firm had estimated the all-glass model could have carried an average selling price of about $2,060. 56

Against the reported $324.96 share price, Jefferies’ $263.66 target represented roughly 19% downside. A price target is an analyst opinion, not a prediction, but it illustrates how much of the investment debate rests on Apple’s future pricing power. 114

The case for continued outperformance

The bullish case is credible if September’s product strategy shows three things: compelling reasons to upgrade, pricing that supports premium mix, and an outlook that keeps margin pressure contained. A successful first foldable could directly counter the idea that Apple’s high-end roadmap has weakened.

The all-glass iPhone report is also a longer-dated issue. Nearer-term market reaction is more likely to hinge on announced prices, demand for Pro models and any foldable, early supply availability, and management’s outlook for the December quarter.

What could go wrong

High expectations make a merely solid launch potentially insufficient. The stock could struggle if the foldable is supply constrained, priced beyond broad high-end demand, dilutive to margins, or mainly cannibalizes existing Pro purchases. Price increases intended to offset component costs could also hurt upgrade volumes.

There is also an important information gap: Apple confirmed the event, but not the rumored foldable, its name, its specifications, or its pricing. Investors should separate confirmed event details from launch reporting and analyst scenarios. 2131

The verdict: plausible, but evidence must follow

Apple can keep outperforming, but the argument is strongest only if the launch translates into visible premium demand and durable margins. The September 9 event is the starting point, not the proof.

The clearest checkpoints after the event will be announced pricing and storage tiers, preorder demand and delivery times, product availability, and Apple’s December-quarter revenue and gross-margin outlook. Strong evidence on those measures would challenge the Jefferies thesis; weak evidence would make the stock’s high expectations harder to justify.