China’s Tourism Surge and the US Slowdown: Verifying the 2026 WTTC Data

China’s inbound tourism surge is well-documented beyond WTTC data. The country has aggressively expanded its visa-exemption program, granting unilateral visa-free entry to travelers from 38 countries as of late 2024 . Alongside mutual visa waivers and transit policies, China had established comprehensive visa-free agreements with more than 25 countries by the end of 2024, and the coverage continued expanding into 2025 . Officials have cited streamlined payment systems, enhanced transportation access, and instant tax refunds as additional factors driving the recovery .

The US Decline: Numbers and Policy Drivers

While global tourism spending rose 6.7% in 2025 to $11.7 trillion—contributing 10.3% to global GDP—the United States moved in the opposite direction . Multiple sources confirm a 6% drop in foreign tourism to the US in 2025 . This decline occurred even as other destinations like Europe and Japan recorded record tourism years .

WTTC’s own research points to policy decisions as a contributing factor. In January 2026, the council published findings showing that one-third of international travelers said they would be less likely to visit the US if proposed changes requiring wider social media disclosures under the ESTA program were introduced . The same research warned that these changes could eliminate up to 157,000 US travel and tourism jobs .

Separately, reporting linked the 2025 decline to anti-immigration policies, though domestic tourism partially compensated for the drop in foreign visitor spending . Industry tracking data showed foreign visits to the US declining for several consecutive months toward the end of 2025 .

What Could Not Be Confirmed

Several widely circulated figures in the China–US tourism comparison remain unverified by the source materials available to us:

• 68 million international visitors to China in 2025 (up 15.5% YoY): This specific figure does not appear in the WTTC releases or other sources provided.
• $135 billion in visitor spending and $1.8 trillion total sector size: The confirmed WTTC China forecast for 2025 is reported in yuan (¥13.7 trillion), not US dollars, and the dollar-converted figures cited in widespread narratives could not be matched to official WTTC documentation .
• Projections of $3.5 trillion by 2036: WTTC’s publicly available long-range China forecast points to ¥27 trillion by 2035, not $3.5 trillion by 2036 .
• US decline of 5.5%: The confirmed figure across multiple sources is a 6% drop in foreign tourism, not 5.5% .
• Visa-free access for “over 50 countries”: By the end of 2024, China had unilateral visa-free entry for 38 countries plus mutual agreements covering more than 25 others, but a precise “over 50 countries” figure encompassing a single visa-free program could not be confirmed in the provided sources .

These discrepancies do not mean the widely cited figures are necessarily wrong—they may appear in a specific June 3, 2026 WTTC report that is behind a paywall, in a separate projection model, or from a different organization entirely. But from the publicly available and verifiable WTTC materials, the exact numbers should be treated with caution.

What This Means for the Travel Industry

The verified data still tells a clear story: global tourism is growing robustly, China is capturing an increasing share of that growth through deliberate policy choices, and the US is losing ground in the international visitor market at least partly because of policy signals that deter foreign travelers.

WTTC data from May 2026 shows global travel and tourism is forecast to grow 3.2% in 2026, outpacing wider economic growth of 2.4%, with the sector expected to contribute $12 trillion to the world economy and support 376 million jobs . Within that expanding pie, the US and China are moving in opposite directions on international arrivals—a divergence that will shape investment, airline routes, and destination marketing strategies for the rest of the decade.