The Fiction: A Pattern of Deception at the Top

ISW reports that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov has been the primary architect of this false narrative, presenting "highly inaccurate battlefield assessments for five consecutive months" . His briefings have repeatedly claimed Russian forces are advancing west of Kupyansk, a city they have not, in fact, captured . In mid-May, Gerasimov escalated the fiction, absurdly claiming his forces had seized all of Borova and 85% of Lyman—claims for which ISW has found "no evidence" .

This systematic distortion appears to be shaping Putin's strategic calculus. Sources familiar with the president's thinking indicate he "remains confident his army can capture the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the fall of 2026" and plans to use this as leverage in future negotiations . ISW analysts attribute this confidence directly to the exaggerated maps and briefings from his own military command .

The Reality: A 15-Fold Collapse in Momentum

The factual picture on the ground, documented by ISW, could not be more different from the Kremlin’s claims.

• Territorial Gains Have Collapsed: Between January and late May 2026, Russian forces seized only 104 square kilometers. During the same period in 2025, they captured 1,619 square kilometers—a roughly 15-fold slowdown in the pace of advance .
• The Advance is Now Glacial: In the crucial Donetsk region, the current rate of advance is just 2.63 square kilometers per day. Analysts emphasize that at this pace, capturing the remainder of the Donbas is not a matter of months, but is an open question of if it can be achieved at all .
• Russia is Now Losing Ground: The slow-down has tipped into outright reversal. In April 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers of controlled territory—the first such monthly contraction since Ukraine's August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast . This was driven by Ukrainian counterattacks and a steady decline in Russia's rate of advance that began in November 2025 .

The Kupyansk Microcosm: A Lie Repeated is Still a Lie

The fight for Kupyansk perfectly encapsulates the gap between Kremlin fiction and frontline fact. The Russian high command has been making exaggerated claims about seizing the city since late summer 2025, but these have been repeatedly disputed by both ISW and pro-Russian milbloggers .

In May 2026, a Russian milblogger reported that a small group of roughly 20 Russian soldiers who had been encircled in Kupyansk’s city center for months had been largely eliminated, with Ukrainian forces striking remaining positions as late as May 23 . ISW assesses that Russian forces "do not hold consolidated positions within Kupyansk" and that only a few isolated infiltrators remain, a direct contradiction of the Kremlin's narrative .

The Impossible Order: Making Reality Match the Map

The most telling evidence of the disconnect may be a directive from Russia's own leadership. On May 28, the same day the leaked map surfaced, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov issued an order to "accelerate advances in Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman" .

ISW assesses that this order is not a routine operational directive but a panicked command "aimed at making actual battlefield conditions match the exaggerated maps already presented to the Kremlin" . Senior commanders, having created a fictional world of rapid victory to appease their president, are now being compelled to deliver it at any cost. The order is an implicit acknowledgment that the real war, with its crumbling advances and net territorial losses, is nothing like the one being presented to Vladimir Putin.

The Fiction: A Pattern of Deception at the Top

ISW reports that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov has been the primary architect of this false narrative, presenting "highly inaccurate battlefield assessments for five consecutive months" . His briefings have repeatedly claimed Russian forces are advancing west of Kupyansk, a city they have not, in fact, captured . In mid-May, Gerasimov escalated the fiction, absurdly claiming his forces had seized all of Borova and 85% of Lyman—claims for which ISW has found "no evidence" .

This systematic distortion appears to be shaping Putin's strategic calculus. Sources familiar with the president's thinking indicate he "remains confident his army can capture the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the fall of 2026" and plans to use this as leverage in future negotiations . ISW analysts attribute this confidence directly to the exaggerated maps and briefings from his own military command .

The Reality: A 15-Fold Collapse in Momentum

The factual picture on the ground, documented by ISW, could not be more different from the Kremlin’s claims.

• Territorial Gains Have Collapsed: Between January and late May 2026, Russian forces seized only 104 square kilometers. During the same period in 2025, they captured 1,619 square kilometers—a roughly 15-fold slowdown in the pace of advance .
• The Advance is Now Glacial: In the crucial Donetsk region, the current rate of advance is just 2.63 square kilometers per day. Analysts emphasize that at this pace, capturing the remainder of the Donbas is not a matter of months, but is an open question of if it can be achieved at all .
• Russia is Now Losing Ground: The slow-down has tipped into outright reversal. In April 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers of controlled territory—the first such monthly contraction since Ukraine's August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast . This was driven by Ukrainian counterattacks and a steady decline in Russia's rate of advance that began in November 2025 .

The Kupyansk Microcosm: A Lie Repeated is Still a Lie

The fight for Kupyansk perfectly encapsulates the gap between Kremlin fiction and frontline fact. The Russian high command has been making exaggerated claims about seizing the city since late summer 2025, but these have been repeatedly disputed by both ISW and pro-Russian milbloggers .

In May 2026, a Russian milblogger reported that a small group of roughly 20 Russian soldiers who had been encircled in Kupyansk’s city center for months had been largely eliminated, with Ukrainian forces striking remaining positions as late as May 23 . ISW assesses that Russian forces "do not hold consolidated positions within Kupyansk" and that only a few isolated infiltrators remain, a direct contradiction of the Kremlin's narrative .

The Impossible Order: Making Reality Match the Map

The most telling evidence of the disconnect may be a directive from Russia's own leadership. On May 28, the same day the leaked map surfaced, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov issued an order to "accelerate advances in Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman" .

ISW assesses that this order is not a routine operational directive but a panicked command "aimed at making actual battlefield conditions match the exaggerated maps already presented to the Kremlin" . Senior commanders, having created a fictional world of rapid victory to appease their president, are now being compelled to deliver it at any cost. The order is an implicit acknowledgment that the real war, with its crumbling advances and net territorial losses, is nothing like the one being presented to Vladimir Putin.