China's 'Real and Growing' Direct Missile Strike Threat to Australia

A landmark report published in June 2026 by the Lowy Institute, an Australian foreign policy think tank, has concluded that China poses a "real and growing" direct missile strike threat to the Australian mainland . The assessment details a military build-up that it describes as a "historic shift" with sharp consequences for Australia's security .

The Current Threat: What China Can Already Do

The report finds that China's military already possesses the capability to strike Australia in several ways :

• Ship- and submarine-launched ballistic missiles: The report identifies China's ability to launch missile strikes from naval platforms as the "main threat" to Australia .

• DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile: Already operational, this missile can reach northern Australia if fired from China's artificial islands in the South China Sea .

• Trade and infrastructure threats: Beyond direct strikes, China can already block Australia's trade routes through Indonesian archipelago choke points, sever undersea cables, and conduct sophisticated cyber operations against Australian critical infrastructure .

The Emerging Capabilities Over the Next Decade

The report warns that the threat will "grow over the next decade" as new systems enter service . The specific capabilities driving this escalation include:

DF-27 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile

Per US military assessments, the DF-27 has a range of 5,000 km to 8,000 km, allowing it to reach Australia from China directly. The report warns the threat will grow as the DF-27 "grows in service numbers" over the next decade .

Conventionally Armed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)

The report notes speculation by the Pentagon that Beijing has developed a new ICBM armed with a non-nuclear warhead. This capability, along with the DF-27, will increase the direct strike threat as it enters service .

Long-Range Bombers and Drones

The report warns the threat would "dramatically escalate" if China fields a crewed or drone long-range bomber, or deploys bombers or missiles on Pacific islands close to Australia .

Hypersonic Weapons

The Lowy Institute notes China is amassing long-range and hypersonic weapons as part of the growing strike capability .

The Broader Context

While the report concentrates on the military capabilities of China, it expressly refrains from speculating on the likelihood of conflict or whether Beijing might resort to military action against Australia . China has publicly slammed the report, with state media describing it as a "grave strategic miscalculation" .

The assessment underscores a rapidly changing strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific, where geographic distance no longer guarantees security from direct military threats.