Morgan Stanley’s US$1.75 Billion Hong Kong AI Forecast Is About Passive Buying

That distinction matters. This is not a forecast that the companies will earn US$1.75 billion more. Nor does it mean the Hang Seng TECH Index is guaranteed to rise by that amount. It is a market-flow estimate tied to index inclusion.

What the US$1.75 billion figure actually refers to

MEXC and Intellectia report that Morgan Stanley expects US$1.25 billion to US$1.75 billion to move into Hong Kong’s technology stock index when two AI companies join the benchmark on 8 June. Futu and Moomoo add that the two stocks are expected to enter the Hang Seng TECH Index with a combined weight of about 5% to 7%, bringing roughly US$1.25 billion to US$1.75 billion in passive fund inflows.

The companies named are Knowledge Atlas Technology, also referred to as Knowledge Atlas, and MiniMax. Some English-language coverage identifies Knowledge Atlas Technology as operating under the Zhipu AI name, while AASTOCKS lists KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK) and MINIMAX-W (00100.HK) among the frontier-model companies discussed in Morgan Stanley-related coverage.

In plain English, the number is about index mechanics. Funds, ETFs and other products that track an index often need to adjust their holdings when constituents change. That can create buying demand in the secondary market. It does not put the same amount of cash into the listed companies, and it does not automatically improve their financial results.

Why Hang Seng TECH Index inclusion can move money

The Hang Seng TECH Index is one of the main gauges for Hong Kong-listed technology stocks. Index changes matter because many investment products are built to follow benchmarks rather than pick stocks one by one.

Hang Seng Indexes Company has said that, as of the end of March 2025, assets under management in products passively tracking the Hang Seng Family of Indexes totalled about US$88.2 billion. That figure covers the wider Hang Seng index family, not the Hang Seng TECH Index alone, but it shows why index membership can be financially meaningful.

That is why the reported 5% to 7% combined weight estimate and the US$1.25 billion to US$1.75 billion passive-flow estimate are discussed together. If a stock receives a meaningful index weight, index-tracking products may need to buy it in proportion to that weight.

Why Knowledge Atlas and MiniMax became the focus

iTiger describes Knowledge Atlas and MiniMax as standout 2026 Hong Kong IPOs in the AI large-model space, noting that they were not yet Hang Seng TECH Index constituents mainly because their listing histories were too short to satisfy inclusion criteria. Futu and Moomoo also report that, had the two stocks been included since their listing, the Hang Seng TECH Index’s year-to-date loss would have been about 5 percentage points smaller.

That last claim is best treated as a back-test, not a promise. Index inclusion can create forced or semi-forced buying from passive products, but the share prices will still be shaped by valuation, liquidity, earnings, lock-up expirations and overall market mood. Moomoo’s report also flags lock-up expiry as a future stress test for the trade.

Three ways not to read the number

The most careful version of the claim is therefore: according to market reports citing Morgan Stanley, Knowledge Atlas and MiniMax could trigger about US$1.25 billion to US$1.75 billion of passive buying if they are added to the Hang Seng TECH Index as expected.

Morgan Stanley’s AI revenue story is separate

Morgan Stanley’s reported view on frontier AI model companies is not only about index flows. AASTOCKS says the bank linked rising token usage and pricing power to possible non-linear growth in annual recurring revenue, or ARR, for frontier models. The same coverage says Morgan Stanley forecast frontier-model ARR of US$1 billion to US$1.5 billion by the end of 2026, potentially expanding to US$2.5 billion to US$5 billion by the end of 2027.

But that is a different claim. ARR is a business revenue metric. The US$1.75 billion figure being repeated in relation to Hang Seng TECH Index inclusion is an estimated upper bound for passive index-related buying, not the same as projected operating revenue.

How much confidence should readers place in it?

The publicly accessible material reviewed here comes mainly from secondary financial-information sources, including MEXC, Intellectia, Futu, Moomoo, iTiger and AASTOCKS. They broadly line up on the central points: roughly US$1.25 billion to US$1.75 billion of potential passive inflows, an expected 8 June inclusion date, and a possible combined index weight of 5% to 7%.

However, the full original Morgan Stanley research note was not available for direct verification in the sources reviewed. That means the estimate should be treated as a reported Morgan Stanley flow estimate, not an official index announcement, company guidance or investment guarantee.

For the actual market impact, the key items to check next are Hang Seng Indexes Company’s formal constituent notices, ETF and index-fund holding changes, and the companies’ subsequent results. This article summarises public reporting only and is not investment advice.