Proč se v polovině července 2026 propadly akcie AI a polovodičů?

In the first half of July 2026, global AI and semiconductor stocks suffered one of their sharpest selloffs of the year, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value. The rout was not a single-trigger event but a convergence of company-specific disappointment, geopolitical shock, and a cyclical reckoning with the sustainability of AI spending. Here is a breakdown of the drivers, the impact on major indices and Asian chipmakers, and what analysts at Société Générale and BofA Securities are saying.

What Is Driving the Selloff

Several factors combined to create the perfect storm for semiconductor and AI stocks:

• Samsung earnings disappoint. Samsung Electronics reported quarterly profit that surpassed both Nvidia and Apple, but the results still fell short of Wall Street's lofty AI-demand expectations. Its shares dropped 8%, and the miss rattled confidence in the AI trade across the sector .
• U.S.–Iran tensions and oil-price surge. Fresh Gulf tensions pushed oil prices higher, which in turn boosted bets on further central-bank rate hikes. The U.S. dollar strengthened on safe-haven flows, adding pressure on emerging-market equities .
• AI spending sustainability doubts. Investors are increasingly skeptical that the unprecedented capital expenditure by hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) will generate commensurate revenue and profits soon. This "show-me" mood triggered profit-taking after months of blistering gains .
• Hedge-fund rotation. U.S. hedge funds sold tech-hardware stocks for a fourth consecutive week in late June/early July, according to a Goldman Sachs client note, amplifying the selloff .
• Bear-market signposts. BofA Securities strategists led by Savita Subramanian warned in early June that an increasing number of their "bear market signposts" were being triggered, pointing to an approaching top for equities .

Impact on Major Indices and Asian Chipmakers

The selloff hit global markets hard, with Asian chipmakers bearing the brunt:

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX): Plunged roughly 5.4% in a single day on July 2, then another roughly 4.7% in early July; the two-day cumulative drop exceeded 11% . By July 9, the index was at about 12,575 .
• South Korea's KOSPI: Dropped approximately 8% on July 7, triggering market-wide trading halts for the second time in months .
• Taiwan's Taiex: Heavy selling in TSMC and other tech names dragged the index sharply lower, in line with the regional rout .
• Samsung Electronics: Fell 8% on July 7 after its earnings missed lofty AI-demand expectations, despite strong absolute profit .
• SK Hynix: Fell sharply during the first week of July but partly recovered later in the week (up roughly 14% on Nasdaq on July 10) as some dip-buyers stepped in .
• TSMC: Extended losses in sympathy with the global chip selloff, though the company's own earnings visibility remains a key factor for the second half of 2026 .
• U.S. mega-caps: Micron fell as much as 13% in a single session. Intel, Applied Materials, and Lam Research each dropped 9-10% . AMD fell 7-8%, and Nvidia also declined .

Analyst Views: Société Générale and BofA Securities

Société Générale — Asian Equity Leadership and Rotation

In its 2026 Asia-Pacific outlook (published late 2025), Société Générale said the AI investment cycle remains the defining theme for Asian equities. The bank highlighted that cash-flow generation from global AI firms would continue to benefit Asian supply-chain plays (memory, foundries, packaging) .

By mid-2026, the firm acknowledged that foreigners had dumped Asian stocks at the fastest pace in at least 16 years, recording a net $137.36 billion outflow in the first half of 2026 as they trimmed their biggest winners in South Korea and Taiwan . However, Société Générale maintained that Asia's structural advantages—exposure to upstream AI infrastructure and targeted policy support—position the region for a "resilience amid rotation" phase .

The bank's view is that equity leadership is shifting within Asia rather than leaving the region entirely: from AI-pioneer stocks priced for perfection toward AI-enabler companies with nearer-term cash flows .

BofA Securities — AI Rally Sustainability and Macro Risks

Bear-market signposts. In early June 2026, BofA warned that roughly 70% of its historical bear-market indicators had been triggered, signaling that the "easy phase" of the AI rally was over . The bank noted that U.S. hyperscaler stocks were trailing the S&P 500 by about 15% since January 2026 .

Pullback as healthy reset. On July 6, BofA published a note calling the semiconductor selloff a temporary, healthy correction rather than a fundamental shift. The SOX had fallen 11% in Q3 after an 88% gain in Q2, and BofA argued this aligns with historical pullback patterns .

Demand still in 'boom' phase. A BofA monthly survey (mid-June) found that 56% of fund managers still describe the AI stock rally as being in a "boom" phase rather than euphoria, suggesting room for further upside .

Macro risks. BofA flagged that rising oil prices from Gulf tensions could reignite inflation expectations and keep central banks (especially the Fed) in hawkish mode. However, in March 2026, the bank had cautioned that markets might be overestimating the Fed's hawkish response to oil-supply shocks, noting that supply-side shocks can sometimes lead to stable rates or even cuts . By mid-July, with renewed Gulf tensions, BofA reiterated that the oil-inflation-rate nexus was a key risk for risk-assets, especially richly valued tech stocks .

Broader Macroeconomic Risks

• Hawkish central-bank signals. The Fed chair stated in early July that inflation expectations have fallen but policy "won't be loose," keeping the door open for further hikes if needed . The ECB raised rates in June and policymakers warned that high energy costs would continue to fuel price pressures .
• Oil-price uncertainty. Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions in early July sent oil prices surging, reviving safe-haven dollar demand and pressuring emerging-market currencies and equities . A March BofA note had warned that the two-year Treasury yield was moving in lockstep with oil prices, meaning any oil spike could rapidly tighten financial conditions .
• Liquidity drain. The massive foreign outflow from Asian equities ($137 billion in the first half of 2026) has reduced liquidity in regional markets, making them more vulnerable to sudden risk-off episodes .
• Geopolitical tail risk. The U.S.–Iran situation remains volatile; a recent Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran had temporarily opened the Strait of Hormuz and pushed oil down 40% from its peak, but fresh tensions in July reversed that progress .

The mid-July selloff is not a single-trigger event but a convergence of company-specific disappointment (Samsung), geopolitical shock (U.S.–Iran oil spike), and a cyclical reckoning with AI-spending sustainability. Asian chipmakers have been hit hard, with Korea's KOSPI experiencing trading halts. Société Générale sees the rotation within Asia rather than abandonment of the region, with leadership shifting to AI-enabler plays. BofA views the correction as a healthy reset within a still-intact "boom" phase for AI, but warns that rising oil prices and hawkish central-bank signals pose the most immediate macro risk to the rally.