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Revised Inflation Outlook: Lowered to 1.6%

Headline inflation for 2026 was revised down to 1.6%, from the 1.8% projected in the June interim update . This downward revision reflects lower global commodity price assumptions . For context, AMRO's earlier April 2026 full report had projected inflation at 1.4% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027, with higher global energy prices cited as a key driver . The June update had raised the projection to 1.8% due to more prolonged disruptions from the Middle East conflict , making the July revision a partial reversal.

Main Risks Flagged

AMRO identified several key risks to the baseline outlook :

• Food inflation risk: Higher costs and adverse weather conditions are beginning to feed through to consumers. AMRO specifically warned that higher petrochemical prices would affect fertilisers, potentially making food more expensive in the coming months .
• Elevated global energy prices: The impact of the Middle East conflict was less severe than initially expected, but energy and input costs remain elevated . AMRO had earlier warned that if oil prices remained above $100 per barrel, growth could slow to 3.7% and inflation could rise to 2.2% .
• Subdued private investment and country-level vulnerabilities: AMRO retained a weaker growth view for the Philippines amid oil price risks and subdued private investment, even as the country benefits from the AI boom .
• Geopolitical and supply-chain uncertainties: The outlook remains subject to significant uncertainty, with renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict potentially pushing up energy, shipping, and food costs .

Broader Context: A Resilient Region

ASEAN+3 entered 2026 from a position of relative strength, having expanded by 4.3% in 2025, outperforming expectations despite significant shifts in global trade policy . The region's central role in global AI supply chains and strong domestic demand have been key buffers against external headwinds . AMRO Chief Economist Dong He noted during the press briefing that the region has remained resilient, supported by its "central role in global AI supply chains" .