ظاهرة النينيو 2026: تحول سريع نحو

Probability Assessments from Major Agencies

A strong consensus exists across the world's major meteorological bodies:

• NOAA/CPC (June 12): 82% chance of El Niño in May–July 2026; 96% chance persisting through December 2026 – February 2027 . No single strength category exceeds 37% probability, meaning substantial uncertainty remains on peak intensity .
• IRI/Columbia (June 5): 98% probability of El Niño for May–July 2026 .
• WMO (June 2): Officially announced El Niño conditions are developing, set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns .
• UK Met Office: Very high likelihood of El Niño developing, with around a 70% chance of a strong or very strong event later in 2026 .
• PAGASA (Philippines, June 10–11): El Niño conditions now present, with over 80% probability of a full-blown event persisting until early 2027 .
• ESPOL (Ecuador): Expects El Niño onset in the trimester centered on June (82% probability), with warm anomalies persisting through December–February .

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and Intensity Outlook

Weekly Niño3.4 SST anomalies have reached +0.9°C, though monthly values remain near the borderline threshold . Forecasters say the event has the potential to become one of the most intense on record . Some models project that SST anomalies could exceed +2.0°C in the Niño3.4 region by late 2026, with certain localized areas of the eastern Pacific potentially approaching or exceeding +3.0°C . However, NOAA notes substantial uncertainty in peak strength, with no single strength category exceeding 37% odds, as the final outcome depends on fickle wind patterns and ocean-atmosphere coupling .

Expected Global Consequences

Drought and food security in the Philippines and Southeast Asia: PAGASA has warned that El Niño will bring reduced rainfall, increasing the risk of drought across the Philippines . A Welthungerhilfe briefing (June 10) flags serious implications for agriculture and food security in vulnerable regions .

Altered typhoon patterns in the western Pacific: El Niño typically shifts typhoon activity eastward and can increase the frequency of intense storms in the central and western Pacific, altering the typical tracks that affect East and Southeast Asia .

Increased precipitation and flood risk in California and the Desert Southwest: In the United States, El Niño is associated with a shifted jet stream that drives stormier, wetter conditions across California and the southern tier of the country, raising the risk of flooding and heavy precipitation .

Other global impacts: The WRI (June 3) notes that a Super El Niño brings heightened risks of droughts, floods, cyclones, and extreme heat . The UK Met Office warns that when a strong El Niño develops in today's warmer climate, the impacts are amplified .

Warnings from Global Leaders and Scientists

• World Meteorological Organization (WMO): Issued a global call to prepare, stating that El Niño will "influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather" . The WMO also warned that a record-hot year is highly likely by 2030, with the El Niño potentially breaking global temperature records as early as 2027 .
• BBC (May 14): Reported "growing assurance" this could become one of the most intense El Niño episodes ever recorded, with alerts about "unprecedented global temperatures and significant humanitarian effects" .
• The Guardian (June 11): Described the event as set to "turbocharge extreme weather" globally .
• CNN (June 11): Declared El Niño "officially here" with forecasts pointing to a "Super El Niño" bringing major shifts in global weather and an even hotter climate .
• Phys.org (May 22): Noted scientists say the outcome hinges on "fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts," making it too early to be fully confident in a history-making event .

Key caveat: While the probability of El Niño is extremely high, its ultimate strength remains uncertain. NOAA emphasizes that no intensity category exceeds 37% probability . The transition from a multi-year La Niña to a potential Super El Niño within a single year is exceptionally rapid, and small atmospheric variations could still moderate the outcome.