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Broader context

• Inflation and rate hike expectations — Eurozone CPI inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in May 2026 (from 3.0% in April), the highest since September 2023 . Markets are pricing a 25-basis-point rate hike at the ECB's June 11-12 Governing Council meeting as highly likely . The ECB held rates at 2.00% in April but flagged this meeting as decisive .

• Fragmented payments landscape — The European Parliament has emphasized the EU's dependence on foreign financial market infrastructures "ranging from retail payment systems to clearing and settlement," and called for reducing strategic dependencies . Europe currently lacks a unified, homegrown retail payment scheme that can compete at scale with U.S. card networks.

• Political alignment challenges — Moulin explicitly said that political action is needed alongside central bank efforts . The digital euro's launch hinges on the legislative process being completed in 2026 , which requires coordination among the European Parliament, Council, and member states — an ongoing source of uncertainty.

Key caveats

• The euro's rise to "around 20%" represents moderate, not transformative, gains — the U.S. dollar still dominates global reserves and payments .
• The digital euro is not yet a certainty; the ECB cannot formally decide to issue it until the legislative process is complete .
• The June 11-12 rate hike is widely expected but not guaranteed, pending the final inflation and growth data.