أسلحة تشويش ومناورات

The driver behind these moves is China's rapid expansion: its operational satellite fleet has surpassed 1,189 spacecraft, including more than 510 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites, giving the PLA persistent targeting and tracking capability across the Indo-Pacific .

Concerns about the lack of risk-management channels

• No reliable crisis communication. Kari Bingen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has stated flatly that the US and China "lack reliable channels to manage risks in an increasingly crowded orbit" . There is no dedicated bilateral space-risk hotline or deconfliction mechanism comparable to Cold War-era US-Soviet nuclear risk-reduction channels.
• Collision and miscalculation hazards. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warned in its March 2025 "Securing Space" task force report that the number of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) has doubled since 2018, with over 40,000 tracked objects. Without dialogue, the risk of accidental collisions between US and Chinese assets — which could be misread as a hostile act — rises sharply .
• Escalation from ambiguity. Proximity operations by both sides (co-orbital satellites conducting close approaches) create dangerous ambiguity. China has conducted at least five such rendezvous-and-proximity operations (RPOs) in 2024 alone, according to the Secure World Foundation . Without communication channels, a routine inspection maneuver could be misidentified as preparation for an attack, triggering a rapid escalation .
• Fragmented diplomatic alternatives. A new UN forum on space traffic coordination met in Vienna in February 2026 to try to build information-sharing norms, but progress is slow and the US-China bilateral dimension remains largely unaddressed . The CFR report explicitly urges the establishment of US-China diplomatic channels on space security, but no such formal mechanism exists today .
• China's own warnings. Beijing has raised concerns at the UN about the rapid, unregulated expansion of large commercial constellations (notably Starlink), warning they pose "pronounced safety and security" risks — highlighting that both sides see the crowded orbit as dangerous but have no joint framework to manage it .